Trump’s Gaza Gambit
A Real Estate Dream, or a Diplomatic Nightmare?
Introduction:
On February 4, 2025, President Donald Trump of the USA unveiled his new “plan” for Gaza. It took almost everyone by surprise, including Cairo, Amman, Tehran, Riyadh, and Tel Aviv. The plan has been soundly rejected by friends and foes alike. Even the Israeli far-right was surprised. It brought out the real-estate mogul side of the President. But what is this plan, what does this mean, and what are Trump’s real intentions?
The Plan:
Trump suggested that Palestinians in Gaza should be permanently resettled outside the war-torn territory and the U.S. should take “ownership” in redeveloping the area into “the Riviera of the Middle East”. The plan was too extreme, even for the Israeli far-right, which had previously called for a voluntary migration of Gazans, rather than their complete deportation and resettlement. What it entails is the nightmare of many, and quite possibly, a large amount of human rights abuses. The proposal outlined a complete deportation of the Palestinian Arab population of Gaza to Egypt, Jordan (both of whom have rejected and condemned the plan), and other areas and regions. Israel’s political parties have had several varied opinions, with one minister praising Trump for publicly stating the ‘ only solution to the Gaza problem’, another minister calling it a geopolitical earthquake. Another leader expressed concern that the statement could harm the prospects of the release of the hostages.
Reactions from Egypt and Jordan:
Egypt and Jordan have been quite steadfast in their refusal to take in Palestinian refugees from the war. King Abdullah II of Jordan has stated, “No refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt.” This is an interesting statement that has several layers. While everyone criticizes Israel for its military campaign and the collateral damage it has caused to the civilian population, nobody seems interested in the fact that Egypt has, by and large, not allowed Gazan refugees to escape the horrors of war. This is odd, as historically the two states, along with Syria, have been the most vociferous supporters of Palestine, having attacked Israel literally days after its independence.
The reasons for this lack of actual support are multifaceted. Egypt has wanted nothing to do with Gaza since 1979, when it signed a peace treaty with Israel. It did not annex Gaza even when Israel offered it to Egypt on a platter. This was in spite of the military occupation of Gaza by the United Arab Republic, the union of Egypt and Syria that existed for a brief period. Egypt also fears that taking in refugees would bring militants once again into the Sinai Peninsula, which would turn it into a base for attacks on Israel. It would unravel the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt that has been in place for 45 years. That is why Egypt has largely prevented Palestinians from crossing the Gaza border when Israel began its military campaign against Gaza after the October 7 terrorist attack.
Then there is also the reason that Egypt has been under multiple crises. The drop in tourism following the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine War and subsequent increase in food and fuel prices (Egypt has to import most of its wheat),, the refugee outflows from Sudan and Libya, high unemployment rates, a debt crisis that worsens year after year, very little actually inhabitable land, and the tussle over the waters of the Blue Nile with Ethiopia are just some of the crises Egypt faces. Together, all of these have forced Egypt into a corner. Individually, they could have been dealt with, together, the problems are compounded and increase manifold. In such a scenario, bringing 1-2 million Gazan refugees would be catastrophic and will push Egypt to the brink. Egypt’s resources are anyway extremely strained, with only a small amount of its territory actually being inhabitable, and water resources reliant largely on a single source - the Nile river. It is also in a debt crisis that deepens every year. It has also fortified the border with Gaza to curb the flow of Gazan refugees into Egypt.
Jordan, too, doesn’t want anything to do with Palestine. The events of Black September are embedded into the institutional memory of Jordan. In September 1970, the Palestinian Liberation Organization waged war against Jordan, even though the country had granted citizenship to hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees. (Palestinian Arabs account for nearly 50% of the Jordanian population as of 2010).
The Palestinian Liberation Army led by Yasser Arafat waged war on its host country. The Israeli intervention against PLO positions (and the Syrian military that tried to intervene) in firm support of King Hussein led to a warming of ties between the two countries and the eventual normalization of relations in 1994. The Israeli Air Force bombed several PLA positions. Brigadier Muhammad Zia-Ul-Haq, head of the Pakistani training mission to Jordan, also played an important role in defeating the PLO and massacred thousands of Palestinians. He would later go on to become the President of Pakistan.
This war waged by the PLO was seen as a betrayal by King Hussein. Amman probably believes that taking in Palestinian refugees might lead to a repeat of the events of 1970. Egypt does not want to host any Palestinian refugees either. If refugees arrive, Israel might refuse to take them once the fighting ends. Then Egypt will be forced to grant them citizenship. This fear is not unfounded, but based in history. Israel refused to let back Arab refugees from its territory return in the aftermath of the 1948 war.
While everyone is focused on Israel’s campaign and the loss of civilian life, everybody seems to ignore Egypt and Jordan’s refusal to accept refugees.
There is one thing everybody has seemed to ignore - Trump has a history of making outlandish statements like these. This is a negotiating tactic - going for a maximalist, outrageous position, so that when actual demands are stated, they seem drastically toned down and sane in comparison. There is a possibility that because of history, both Jordan and Egypt would have refused to take in refugees at all. Now, after Trump’s proposal, Jordan agreed to accept 2000 Gazan Children refugees with medical conditions. Egypt, too, can be expected to take in a few thousand refugees in exchange for American aid. This aid is vital for Egypt, due to the aforementioned crises it has been reeling under.The Land of the Pharaohs needs whatever assistance it can get from other countries. In a scenario like this, any pragmatic negotiator would also like to extract as many concessions as possible. Trump is probably aware of both Egypt and Jordan’s reliance on the USA, and has decided to make American assistance conditional.
Conclusions:
Trump’s proposal for Gaza has been met with widespread rejection, not just from adversaries but also from key U.S. allies in the Middle East. While the plan itself is extreme and unrealistic, its mere proposal has triggered a subtle shift in regional diplomacy. Jordan and Egypt were both reluctant to accept Palestinian refugees due to historical and security concerns. Jordan has now made a limited concession, and Egypt might make one soon.
This saga reveals that the geopolitical calculus of the Middle East is not just about Israel and Palestine but also about the interests of surrounding Arab states, whose actions are often dictated by internal stability rather than ideological support for the Palestinian cause. Whether Trump’s gambit is a mere rhetoric, or a sign of future U.S. policy shifts remains to be seen, but it has once again forced the region to confront uncomfortable questions about the fate of Gaza’s population amidst the war. The ceasefire may have relaxed things temporarily, but the conflict will continue.